GoldEdge

a true Golden Edge in a world of change.


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A UNIFIED RISE – it is rare

A UNIFIED RISE in Six major Asset classes – it is rare

What’s that?  All major asset classes Rose in the First Half:

+ Gold—————- : up +9.7% : GLD

+ DJ Commodities – : up +8.1% : CRB

+ 10-year T-Notes – : up +6.4% : TLT

+ MSCI World Index : up +4.8% : ???

+ Emerging Mkts.— : up +4.3% : EEM

+ Dow Jones Aver. – : up +1.7% : INDU

Why?

“Commitment of the Fed and the ECB to keep rates low”

= The Dollar lost Value against ALL these Asset Classes

Apparently, this breeds complacency, and Low VIX … update

“VIX averaged 13.8 in 1st half… Lowest since 2007”

VIX_zpsd5673671.gif


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Have we hit Peak Psycho-Pathology? The New “Lecter Index”

Psycho-pathology has been on the Rise. And some stocks of companies

which exhibit pscho-pathological behavior have gone up with it.

But now, these stocks are starting to look “toppy.”

Some say: “We have hit Peak Everything”…

2408282_370.jpg?w=604

If so, we must have also Hit Peak-Psychopaths also

A good bellwether for that, might be the price of:

… Monsanto StockMON-update

MON_zpsc0da56e9.gif

… Or maybe a Drug stock index … XPH-update

XPH_zpsf0ddf289.gif

… Or the Financial stocks … XLF-update

XLF_zps04427b3a.gif

Or all three together – giving us the basis for a new Index;

The “Lecter Index” – Peak Pathology?
Stock: 6/26/14: $ 333,333 : End-2013- NAV : End-2012- NAV :
MON : 126.18 :: 2,642 shs. : 116.55: $307.9k : $94.65: $250.1k : 
XPH -: 103.22 :: 3,229 shs. : $87.97: $284.1k : $55.91: $180.5k :
XLF- : $22.67 : 14,703 shs : $21.86: $321.4k : $16.39: $241.0k :
=====: ====== : = $1,000k : =====: $913.4k : ======: $671.6k :
=====: ====== : ==== Last : === vs : +9.48% : === vs : +48.9% :
 
Should any other companies that are famous for “Psychopathic behavior” be included in this index?


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Watching Inflation Indicators… that Run with Gold

The Belkin Report has recently added a Short position on Bonds.

He is Short Bonds, because he is concerned about rising Inflation (including rising gasoline prices)

And his “best Long trade” is Gold stocks”

– Post#169

 

I’m watching Inflation indicators, which have historically to Run with Gold

DBA (Agri-fund) versus GLD etc … update

DBA-etc_zps33c11d95.gif

The LOWS line up rather well !

And a new uptrend seems to be underway


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The Magic of Nuggets (NUGT, the 3X etf for Gold shares)

NUGT has had a great run in the last few days … update

NUGT6mos_zps4e73404c.gif

As shown over the last 10 Days, below: (on a percentage basis):

+ NUGT returned 3.44x the gain of GDX, and

+ NUGT returned 9.31x the gain of Gold

As a 3X etf, how could if return more than 3 times the gain in GDX?

Essentially, it is because “profits are reinvested”, increasing gearing

In detail:

At the $28.50 Low, there was 3x that (=$ 85.50) invested in Gold shares; that’s 3.83 GDX shares at $22.34.
At the $44.63 High, there was 3x that (=$133.89) invested in Gold shares; that’s 5.13 GDX shares at $26.10.

The 34% increase in the number of GDX shares backing the NUGT, represents a reinvestment of profits,
gained by NUGT through the aggressive 3-times gearing.

The good news is that, a holder of NUGT is only at risk on the money invested in NUGT, not the higher gearing working on his/her behalf.

The bad news is that if GDX chops up and down the NUGT will lose value.

===============

Over the last 10 Days:

NUGTetc_zpscb17c044.gif

LOWS -10d : 6/19-H : +change : %-Chg. :
GDX: $22.34 : $26.10 : +$ 3.67 : +16.43%
nugt: $28.50 : $44.63 : +$16.13: +56.60% (x 3.44)
VGZ: $.3705 : $.5495 : +$.1790: +48.31%
GLD: 119.94 : 127.23 : +$ 7.29 : + 6.08%
====
NUGT : 3.44x %gain of GDX / 9.31x %gain of GLD


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GOLD : A very Odd day – With Gold shares in powerful move up

GDX – A powerful move UP ! … update

GDX_zpsa6eb8ff9.gif

Gold Ends Near Steady; FOMC Statement a Non-Event for Markets – Kitco News, Jun 18 2014

Most market watchers expected the FOMC to announce it will continue to taper its monthly bond-buying program, also called quantitative easing, by another $10 billion. Markets took the statement in stride and are now looking to Yellen’s comments at her press conference, which will be parsed for clues on future action coming from the FOMC.

The civil war in Iraq remains a major market factor … ISIS rebels have taken partial control over Iraq’s largest oil refinery…

The Russia-Ukraine tensions are still running high this week as Russia has recently cut the natural gas supply to Ukraine and said it will supply natural gas to Ukraine only if paid for in advance.
==============
GLD : 122.67 +0.39 : +0.32% 4.54 M
GDX : $24.76 +0.64 : +2.65% 36.05M
Nugt : $38.36 +2.69 : +7.54% 5.05 M
Gdxj : $40.23 +1.76 : +4.57% 6.68 M
IAG- : $04.05 +0.16 : +4.11% 6.53 M
VGZ : $0.472 +.015 : +3.28% 493,068
====

Very odd day !

Gold hardly moved, being up 0.32% – while Gold shares shot up 2.65% on reasonably heavy volume.

History tells us, that when moves like this occur, we should expect Gold shares to be leading Gold.

But no guarantee – it does not ALWAYS happen.


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Have we seen The Turn in London Property?

DrBubb, on 17 Jun 2014 – 7:13 PM, said:

The headline news is turning negative – just 3 months after the peak in Builder shares:

 

PRICES IN LONDON RUN OUT OF STEAM – excerpt/notes from SCMP- page, P5

Concerns over overpaying prompt homebuyers to step back from the market as common sense takes hold

Asking prices for London homes fell from a record this month… according to Rightmove

– 0.5% : to GBP 589,776, the first decline this year

– 0.3% : to GBP 2.38 million in Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive area

Rightmove cited:

+ New tougher mortgage rules, and

+ Cooling in demand

In the past year:

: London prices are up 14.5%

: British homes prices up 7.7%

(Partly seasonal, I think. But Important tops can be made when prices “fall under their own weight”)

London, Final Rally: http://tinyurl.com/L-FinalRally

Barratt Development / BDEVupdate : the best early bellwether for UK property : 6-9 months lead time?

[BDEV_zps46d0b3c6.gif[

An Addition confirmation of Turn: would come If/when the Blue MA (76d) breaks below the Red MA (252d).